We’re back to a normal track this weekend for Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (2 p.m. ET/FS1/MRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). But, will we see a “normal” winner?
Penske and Gibbs have won nine of the first 10 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races and 11 of the last 12 overall, but their drivers have struggled at the Dover International Speedway lately.
So, while they’re the favorites for this weekend, tread lightly.
Kyle Busch (+300)
Yes, he has a top 10 finish in every race this season including six of which being in the top three, Busch is a risky pick. Here’s why.
He can compete with the best of them at Dover. In his last four Fall race starts there, he has three top two finishes. But, in his last five spring race starts, Busch has a best finish of 16th including four of which being 30th or worse.
See where this is a tough choice?
Denny Hamlin (+1500)
Here’s another risky pick. Hamlin, has a top 11 finish in all but one race in 2019 and has five top 10 finishes in his last six Dover starts. But, on the flip side, he only has two top five finishes at Dover since 2010. Where this is a good pick is the odds value on him and the fact that he was runner-up in this race last Fall to go along with six top seven finishes in his last seven starts on the season.
Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
He’s Gibbs’ best shot this weekend. Truex, finally got his first short track win last month in Richmond and returns to the site of his first Cup Series win this weekend at Dover. Truex, has four top four finishes in his last five Monster Mile starts including nine top 11 results in his last 10 starts there overall.
Kevin Harvick (+450)
He’s due and this could be the week. Harvick, has seven top 10 finishes in 2019 and has three top 10’s in his last four Dover starts including a win last spring. Also, Harvick has led 91 or more laps in six of his last nine Dover starts overall including 200+ in both races last year.
Brad Keselowski (+800)
He’s the best option out of the Penske bunch. Keselowski, finished sixth and fifth respectively in the two annual Dover stops last year to go along with scoring three consecutive top 10 finishes at the Monster Mile. In fact, Keselowski has five top 10’s in his last six Dover tries with four of those being in the top six. Since his fall win in 2012, Keselowski has eight top six finishes in Dover.
Chase Elliott (+800)
This one is a no brainer. Elliott, has four top three finishes in his six Dover starts including a win last Fall. Furthermore, he’s finished worse than fifth just once and that was a 12th place run in last year’s spring race. This is a good track for him.
Clint Bowyer (+1500)
Dover is a very good track for Bowyer. From 2011 through 2015, he had nine top 10 finishes in 10 tries, all consecutively. He’s also finished in the top six in two of his last three overall starts there including a runner-up in this very race last year. On the season, Bowyer has four top seven finishes in his last five tries too.
Jimmie Johnson (+1300)
This is among one of Johnson’s best tracks. He also enters with three top 12 finishes in his last four starts on the year. At Dover, Johnson has eight top 10’s in his last 11 starts including a ninth place run last May. Worth the risk here.
Kurt Busch (+1500)
The Chip Ganassi Racing driver hasn’t finished worse than 12th since the season opening Daytona 500. While he has just three top five finishes at Dover since 2012, he did finish fifth in both races there a year ago.
Austin Dillon (+10000)
This is a very good value pick. Dillon, finished sixth in Richmond two races ago and has five top 15 finishes in his last six tries. Also, he was seventh in the Dover fall race last year and eighth in the 2017 spring race.
Daniel Suarez (+2500)
The only reason he’s not a favorite is because of his odds. Suarez, has three top 10 finishes in his last five starts on the year and also has three top 10 finishes in his last four starts at Dover as well. Suarez, finished sixth, eighth and third respectively in his first three Dover starts and will be a good pick this weekend, maybe the best value out there.
Joey Logano (+900)
This isn’t one of his better tracks. Logano, has just two top five finishes at Dover since 2014 and both were in the fall race. He’s never finished in the top five in his career in the spring race.
Ryan Blaney (+2000)
He may have finished eighth and 11th respectively last year, but those are his best finishes of his career in Dover. Three of his last five Dover starts, he finished 23rd or worse. Also, five of his 11 starts this season have been 22nd or worse. The numbers don’t favor a win.
Kyle Larson (+1000)
This has been a miserable season for Larson. He’s yet to score a top five all year and heads to a track where he has two top five finishes in his last five tries. Granted, Dover overall has been good to him as he has just one finish worse than 12th in his career there. He even has two runner-ups to his credit including in this race just two years ago after he led 241 laps. But, with how his season is going, this is risky.
Aric Almirola (+2000)
The SHR driver finished fifth in both races at Dover for RPM in 2015. He was 11th and 13th respectively last year. The problem is, those are his best results there and he only has one top five all season.
Erik Jones (+2500)
He’s struggled as of late on the season but Dover is a strong track for him. Jones, finished fourth last Fall there.