How Many Wins Can Busch Realistically Get To?

Now that Kyle Busch has officially caught Richard Petty for career wins in NASCAR at 200, how many wins can the Las Vegas native realistically get to by time he calls it a career?

While 300 would be a great story, I don’t necessarily think he can accomplish that many though. See, Busch is 33 and soon to be 34 in May. While he’s very much still in his prime, I would give him another 5-6 years to definitely remain that way. Past 40, it’s a crap shoot. I do think he can remain relevant and race for at least another decade, possibly a little more, which means in my mind, he certainly can push 300 wins.

AVONDALE, AZ – MARCH 10: Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 Skittles Toyota, takes the checkered flag to win the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway on March 10, 2019 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)


But, to actually reach 300? That’s a bit of a stretch. Here’s why.

94 of Busch’s 200 wins came via the NASCAR XFINITY Series. It’s no secret, Busch has said in the past that his goal is to get to 100 wins in that series then he may call it quits. While I can’t see him fully stepping away from the XFINITY Series for good, I don’t see him racing the seven allotted races per season once he reaches that amount either.

Busch, has won two of his three tries in the series this season and has four more eligible starts left. I doubt he runs the table, so it’s likely 2020 or even 2021 is his final year in the series per his past statements.

But, out of his last 25 wins in general, only five have come in the XFINITY Series, so him walking away from more races isn’t going to necessarily hurt his chances.

Then there’s the Truck Series. He’s won 53 times in there. I don’t ever see him stepping away from that ride unless he folds his team, which again, I can’t see him doing that either.

Busch running in the Truck Series helps garner sponsorship to keep his team operating. Plus, racing in the Truck Series as well as the XFINITY Series is a fun hobby for him. Some drivers like to rock climb, or ride bikes or participate in fitness activities. Busch, well he likes to race. What’s wrong with that? Combine that with him racing to keep a team a float, how can that be a wrong.

Busch, is limited to five starts a year in the Truck Series and has won at least two races every year since 2015. He’s always stated that a goal of his is to win the championship in the Trucks Series as he’s won a championship in every other series that he’s raced in. I can honestly see him retiring from Cup down the road and going out with a title in the Trucks competition. That means many more wins in the future too.

But, between the XFINITY Series and the Trucks Series, Busch is limited to 12 combined races a year in them. 148 of his NASCAR wins have come via these series. When NASCAR is putting more and more limits on Cup drivers participating in them, it’s taking more and more opportunities for Busch to reach 300.

On the Cup side, Busch has 52 wins and is averaging almost six wins a season. He already has two wins in five starts in 2019. I don’t see him slowing down any time soon. In fact, with how the Cup Series is transitioning into a younger talent base, Busch should thrive even longer.

If he averages 5-6 wins a year for the next five years, Busch would have 225 wins at the very least by 2024. Throw in the XFINITY Series (6 more wins) and Truck Series, and he can definitely get to 240 by the end of the 2024 season.

Then, Busch would be 39 years old. Do you think he can win 60 more times at that point?

Look, it’s only taken Busch just shy of eight years to from 100 wins to 200. It took only seven years to get his first 100 wins at that. Law of averages state that it should take him around 11 years to get to 300 total wins. That would be the 2030 season.

Would Busch still be racing in 2030?

That’s why the number 240 is an attainable goal by the end of 2024. From there, he can get to 250 in the next few years following. But, to get to 300?

That’s a reach, one that I would never say never in terms of doubting Busch.

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