LAS VEGAS, NV – We’re in Vegas this weekend, so why not take a deeper look into the betting world of NASCAR. While Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET/FOX/PRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) will be among the most difficult to handicap out of any race of the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, it’s still worth taking a look at.
See, the race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway will be the full extent of the new aero package. Last weekend’s race in Atlanta, featured the tapered spacers to reduce the air flow to the engine from 750 to 550 horsepower turned, as well as the new spoiler, but the aero ducts on the front of the car weren’t in place. That’s because the race at Atlanta has a lot of tire wear. Due to the aged racing surface, the aero ducts needed to be used to cool the brakes instead.
This week, we have everything in place, plus a recently repaved race track. That in turn should lead to less horsepower, more drag and way more downforce.
Despite that, here are some betting trends to watch.
Kevin Harvick (+500)
The best win in Vegas. Over the last five years, only Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski have won on the 1.5-mile oval. Harvick, led 214 laps in a dominating win last year. He earned the pole for this year’s race on Friday.
There’s a reason he’s the favorite. Don’t over think it.
Kyle Busch (+550)
He won the Trucks race on Friday night and qualified his No. 18 Toyota third. Busch, finished runner-up to Harvick in this very race a year ago as well. In fact, since 2013, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has four top seven finishes in six tries. He’s a former winner (2009) and has been very good in the XFINITY Series here in the past too.
Brad Keselowski (+700)
Last week was the first race with the new rules package, albeit it’s a bit different than the one we’re racing with this week, but Keselowski won. In the last 15 Cup races overall, Keselowski has won the most (4) out of anyone else. He’s also won three of the last six races at Vegas. Since 2013, he hasn’t finished worse than seventh on the Nevada oval.
Joey Logano (+700)
Why not keep the Penske theme going? He had among the quickest cars at Daytona and has two wins in the last 15 races overall. In Vegas, he has six straight top 10 finishes including three top four’s in his last four starts. He’s led at least one lap in his last six starts at Vegas as well.
Kyle Larson (+800)
Why not? Larson, led the most laps last week and has had some past success in Vegas in the past. He finished runner-up in two of his last three Vegas starts and was third in the other. Larson also has three straight top three finishes in the XFINITY Series on the 1.5-mile track including a win last Spring.
Best Bang For Your Buck
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Penske is definitely the way to go. Blaney, finished fifth in both Vegas races last year and was second and fourth respectively in the two XFINITY Series races he’s competed in.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4000)
He’s starting towards the front again and is also one of the better restrictor plate racers. Stenhouse, looks good this weekend and is a previous Vegas winner in XFINITY Series competition.
He was third fastest in final practice on single car runs and quickest on the 20 lap averages.
Austin Dillon (+5000)
He has the fastest car here this weekend but will it pay off? Vegas will be more about drafting than all out speed. Dillon, still starts fourth and was 13th and 11th on this track last year. He’s also won in both XFINITY and Trucks competition in Vegas as well. Watch out for him.
In practices this weekend, Dillon was fastest in both.
Ryan Newman (+8000)
He has a strong car so why not throw one unit on him? Newman, fnished 11th and ninth in the two races last year and has also scored five top 10 finishes in his last nine Vegas starts overall. With his odds, why not?
Daniel Hemric (+12500)
He and his teammate have the top speed. Hemric, was a few laps away from scoring a surprise top five finish last weekend. Throw a unit his way.
Clint Bowyer (+1600)
He’s struggled with his race car this weekend and has just one top five finish since 2009. Since 2013, five of his last seven Vegas starts resulted in a finish of 20th or worse.
Chase Elliott (+1800)
He has yet to finish in the top 15 this season. Also, three of his four Vegas starts have seen him finish 34th or worse.
Kurt Busch (+2000)
He also has struggled this weekend and has just two top 10 finishes on his hometrack since 2006. Both of those finishes were ninth (2011, 2016). His last top five came back in 2005.
William Byron (+6600)
He’s typically struggled in Vegas and has struggled this weekend too. He finished 27th and 37th respectively last year and has only been 21st and 17th in two races in 2019.