The oddsmakers listed the Ferrari’s as the favorites to win Sunday’s 56 Lap race in China. Where I question that is, yes they have the speed, but they also don’t have the luck.
Ferrari had every reason to win the last race in Bahrain but threw it all away. They’ve also won just once at the Shanghai International Circuit since 2008. Does that make you feel all warm and fuzzy to pick them at such low odds?
Plus, Charles LeClerc finished 19th in this race last year, albeit with a different team, but still he was 19th. Sebastian Vettel finished eighth himself last year. Also, Vettel has just three podium finishes in his last seven China starts and no podiums in 2019.
These are your favorites.
I don’t trust them.
Ferrari has won only 14 times over the last 102 races overall. Risky picks here.
Vettel, was in the top two in both practice sessions on Friday and looks like a legit contender, but at +175, that’s steep for a guy that has failed to score a podium in 2019.
LeClerc, was only third and seventh respectively but is +150.
Lewis Hamilton is the next best and a more favorable pick. Mercedes has won four of the last five races on the 3.387-mile road course and seven of the last nine. Hamilton, has won three of his past five starts in China and is coming off of a win in Bahrain. He was second in the season opener in Australia and was second and fourth respectively in practice on Friday.
This is the safe pick.
So is Valtteri Bottas. He’s +750 and finished runner-up in this race last year. He was runner-up in Bahrain and even won in Australia. With how well Mercedes has been in China over the last decade, he’s your best play this weekend. Bottas, was quickest on the day on Friday in China.
Red Bull is the only other wise play with no team other than Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull winning an F1 race since the 2013 season opener. Pierre Gasly is +7000 driving the car that won last year. Yes, his results aren’t favorable in 2019, but who’s to say he can’t get on track this weekend? He was only seventh and 10th on the timing charts on Friday.
Max Verstsappen is +1200 and has finished in the top four in both races in 2019. He also has two straight top five finishes in China too and was fourth and third respectively in practice.
Then there’s this, Daniel Ricciardo is +100000. Yes, he’s with a new team and has yet to finish a race in 2019, but he won this very race last year with Renault power. Ricciardo, was sixth and ninth respectively in practice on Friday. Why not?
What about Kimi Raikkonen. He’s +75000 and has two top eight finishes in as many races in 2019. He also has four straight top five finishes in China including a third place run lat year.
What happens if the “Big 3” have issues or crash? Ricciardo and Raikkonen are right there to pounce.
Throw a unit both of their ways and hope for a good outcome.
Carlos Sainz is +100000 and his McLaren team is strong so far. He was P6 on Friday. Rookie Lando Norris finished sixth in the last race in Bahrain and eighth in practice on Friday. Sainz, has three straight top 10 finishes in China. Throw one unit and hope he steals a win and gain $100,000.
Nico Hulkenberg is Ricciardo’s teammate and was P5 in practice on Friday himself.
77 Bottas +750
44 Hamilton +275
10 Gasly +7000
33 Verstappen +1200
7 Raikkonen +75000
3 Ricciardo +100000
55 Sainz Jr. +100000